Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 20.844759 22.739433 24.843476 27.376975 30.377664 33.861653 38.279377
2025-01-19 18.631151 21.263098 24.430554 28.620155 34.178171 41.565899 52.664660
2025-01-26 16.527394 19.435374 23.132636 28.368812 35.961008 47.298188 67.394561
2025-02-02 15.129932 18.215656 22.316001 28.467334 38.126297 54.281864 88.675177
2025-02-09 14.110294 17.319076 21.743175 28.721243 40.511151 62.591649 120.612469
2025-02-16 13.248303 16.514569 21.155252 28.790637 42.555613 71.284490 166.952924
2025-02-23 12.431022 15.677133 20.395905 28.420783 43.674931 78.687502 228.033998
2025-03-02 11.832029 15.089955 19.932621 28.444512 45.538062 89.153636 350.718652
2025-03-09 11.264111 14.495481 19.386185 28.220762 46.819524 99.147268 573.666048
2025-03-16 10.753087 13.944096 18.849039 27.923421 47.857174 109.486601 1097.600280
2025-03-23 10.306381 13.457032 18.368277 27.656260 48.898916 121.165945 3316.696010
2025-03-30 9.924414 13.042976 17.969605 27.487254 50.148226 135.543186 NaN
2025-04-06 9.485957 12.521093 17.359158 26.842142 50.062275 144.471909 NaN
2025-04-13 9.378740 12.512009 17.618234 27.997739 55.335645 193.779099 NaN
2025-04-20 9.060311 12.146450 17.227683 27.735453 56.419878 220.522535 NaN
2025-04-27 8.818616 11.890903 17.011285 27.821445 58.669394 267.363488 NaN
2025-05-04 8.616686 11.688364 16.873128 28.061759 61.577363 341.395552 NaN
2025-05-11 8.406114 11.460050 16.670315 28.126750 63.948055 435.509206 NaN
2025-05-18 8.156968 11.155733 16.306786 27.770324 64.641436 515.457588 NaN
2025-05-25 7.971047 10.948650 16.111112 27.792816 66.898646 694.836388 NaN
2025-06-01 7.768842 10.705162 15.831426 27.577460 68.131761 908.502065 NaN
2025-06-08 7.570858 10.460829 15.536086 27.291334 68.993773 1202.422755 NaN
2025-06-15 7.387694 10.234730 15.263369 27.034212 69.937892 1703.215349 NaN